Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are fractionally to a penny higher in most contracts at midday. The USDA reported a private export sale of 131,300 MT of corn to Mexico this morning. The sale was broke down to 30,000 MT for delivery in 2017/18, with the remaining 101,300 MT set for 2018/19 shipment. There was also a sale of 117,000 MT for 2018/19 to Panama reported through the USDA’s daily reporting system. Corn export commitments are still 3.27% larger than last year despite this week's lower sales total from Thursday’s report. They are now 97% of the USDA export projection, with the typical pace at 99% and last year at 100%. China sold 739,954 MT of corn from state reserves on Friday, totaling 18.64% of the offered amount.

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.58, up 1 cent,

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.67 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.78 3/4, up 1/2 cent

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.88 1/2, up 3/4 cent

Soybean futures are trading 8 to 10 cents in the green so far on Friday. Front Month soy meal is up $5.30/ton, with soybean oil up 14 points. Commitments for soybeans exports are still 4.2% behind a year ago. They are 100% of the full year USDA export projection, compared to the average at 101% and 102% last year. The EPA reportedly plans to increase biofuels blending mandate by 3% in 2019 to 19.88 billion gallons. Biodiesel is targeted at 2.43 billion gallons, up 330 million gallons. BAGE estimates that the 97.1% of the Argentina soybean crop is harvested.

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $8.90 1/2, up 10 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.95 1/4, up 9 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $9.01 1/4, up 10 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $9.10 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal is at $337.10, up $5.30

Jul 18 Soybean Oil is at $29.33, up $0.14

Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 4 cents lower on Friday. All wheat export commitments are lagging this time last year by 28.6%, in just the second week of the MY. Philippines bought in 220,000 MT of feed wheat on Thursday, with origins likely Australia or the Black Sea region. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the Argentine wheat crop is 49% planted. Ukraine’s ag minister estimates the country’s 2018 wheat crop will total somewhere in the range of 23-26 MMT, down from last year’s harvest of 26.2 MMT

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.92 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.90, down 3 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.51, down 1 3/4 cents

Live cattle futures are currently mixed, with back months higher and nearby June down 37.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures are up 25 to 27.5 cents in the front months on Friday. The CME feeder cattle index was up 80 cents from the previous day at $142.21 on June 20. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday morning. Choice boxes were down 30 cents to $217.11, with Select boxes $2.32 higher at $203.93. That tightened the Ch/SE spread to $13.18. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 478,000 head through Thursday. That is 10,000 head above last week and the same time last year. The monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released at 2:00 p.m. CDT. Beef export commitments are now 21.2% larger than the same week last year. There were a few sales of $110 in TX this morning, with most other regions still showing bids at $108-110.

Jun 18 Cattle are at $108.275, down $0.375,

Aug 18 Cattle are at $106.075, down $0.050,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $109.200, up $0.200,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.750, up $0.275

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.500, up $0.250

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.300, up $0.275

Lean hog futures are showing 87.5 cent to $1.25 losses at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 65 cents to $85.79 on June 20. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was reported at $84.85 on Friday morning, down 19 cents. The national base carcass price was down 63 cents in the Friday AM report, averaging $80.95. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.744 million head so far this week. That is down 38,000 head from last week on lower Monday slaughter but up 9,000 head from a year ago. The monthly Cold Storage report showing stocks for the end of May will be released this afternoon. Commitments of pork exports are now just 1% above a year ago.

Jul 18 Hogs are at $79.225, down $1.250,

Aug 18 Hogs are at $74.850, down $0.875

Oct 18 Hogs are at $60.600, down $0.925

Cotton futures are mostly 55 to 81 points higher on Friday, with thinly traded Oct up 120 points. Thursday’s cotton on call report showed mills unfixed call sales position at 15,195 contracts as of 6/15. That was 10,602 contracts below the previous week. All upland cotton export commitments are still 14.8% above the same time last year despite the cancelation in sales. The Cotlook A index is up 40 points from day prior at 93.40 cents/lb on June 21. The weekly AWP was updated to 78.23 cents/lb for this next week, down 476 points from the week prior. China sold 10,000 tonnes of cotton at an auction of state reserves on Friday, representing 33% of the cotton available.

Jul 18 Cotton is at 83.76, up 55 points,

Oct 18 Cotton is at 86.5, up 120 points

Dec 18 Cotton is at 85.1, up 81 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 84.710, up 75 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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